Consider the following Critical Path Analysis. You may assume statistical independence among all events (this makes the mathematical analysis easier.)
1. Activity sequences “A-D-J”, “B-F-K”, and “C-H-L” are critical paths, based on “expected” (50 percent) path estimates. What is probabaility that the project will be late? Show your work. (20 points)
2. Suppose project sponsors and stakeholders put political pressure on the project team and they modify their estimates to a more optimistic estimate and now estimates are likely to be 30% early and 70% likely to be late. Now, what is the is probabaility that the project will be late? Show your work. (20 points)
3. The project sponsor is still unsatisfied with the delivery date. He asks the project manager to reallocate the resources and eliminate any slack or float. The project manager successfully complies and eliminates all slacks or floats and shortens the project duration. (But, now every path is a critical path.) Now, how does that change the probability that the project will be late? (Hint: think carefully about this scenario. (The math becomes complicated and I do not expect you to calculate the probability of being late.) Explain and justify your answer to your project sponsor. (20 points)
4. In general, Is it a good idea to reallocate the resources and eliminate any slack or float? (20 points, hint be careful and think about this question carefully.)
5. What lessons do you take from these results? (20 points)
